The Czech National Bank's Spring 2026 forecast describes an economy that is growing again without returning to the inflation shock of the early 2020s. The bank projects real GDP growth of 2.5% this year, average inflation of 2.2% and a broadly stable koruna at around CZK 24.3 per euro.
For companies, the combination is better than a simple growth headline suggests. Stable currency assumptions reduce one source of uncertainty for importers and exporters, while inflation close to target gives households more predictable real purchasing power. The less comfortable part is financing: the CNB's forecast still has three-month PRIBOR averaging 3.8% in 2026.
Growth is returning, but not at boom rates
A 2.5% growth rate would represent a respectable expansion for a mature Central European economy, but it does not remove structural constraints. Productivity, labour availability, German industrial demand and energy investment remain important limits on how quickly Czech companies can grow.
The forecast therefore looks more like normalisation than acceleration. Domestic consumption and investment can improve without producing the kind of overheating that would force inflation sharply higher again.
The koruna is expected to stay relatively stable
The CNB's exchange-rate path is unusually useful for businesses because Czech industry is deeply integrated into euro-area supply chains while the country retains its own currency. A broadly stable CZK/EUR rate reduces translation noise but does not eliminate margin risk for exporters whose cost base and revenue currency differ.
Companies should also remember that the exchange-rate path is a forecast, not a commitment. A weaker euro-area cycle, geopolitical shock or faster shift in Czech rates could move the currency materially away from the central path.
Our view: the policy debate is moving from inflation control to productive investment
Czech Business Review's view is that the macro picture is becoming less about emergency inflation management and more about whether Czechia can convert stability into investment. Nuclear power, grid capacity, automation, housing and higher-value manufacturing now matter more to the medium-term growth ceiling.
The forecast creates room for that debate because it does not show an economy trapped by either recession or runaway prices. The next question is what businesses and government do with the more normal environment.