The Czech National Bank left its policy rates unchanged in August, keeping the two-week repo rate at 3.75%. Its summer forecast expects inflation to average 2.0% in 2026 and GDP to grow 2.2%.
The message is one of stability rather than rapid easing. The CNB expects inflation to remain close to target this year, rise temporarily toward 3% at the start of 2027 and then return closer to 2%.
Rates may stay restrictive for longer
The forecast puts three-month PRIBOR at 3.7% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027. That is consistent with short-term rates remaining broadly stable rather than returning quickly to the ultra-low levels businesses knew before the inflation shock.
For borrowers, financing conditions can improve through lower inflation and better confidence without requiring a large sequence of policy cuts.
The koruna is expected to remain stable
The CNB projects an average CZK/EUR exchange rate of 24.3 in 2026, 24.4 in 2027 and 24.3 in 2028. A relatively stable currency reduces one source of uncertainty for importers, exporters and companies with euro-denominated contracts.
Currency stability is especially important in an economy whose industrial supply chains are closely tied to the euro area even though Czechia retains the koruna.
Growth is expected to accelerate in 2027
The bank forecasts GDP growth of 2.2% this year and 2.7% in 2027. Domestic demand is supporting activity, while a stronger contribution from net exports is expected as external conditions improve.
The risk for companies is that wage and service-price pressure keeps inflation sticky even as headline inflation remains near target. The CNB described the balance of risks as inflationary overall.
| Indicator | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| GDP growth | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| 3M PRIBOR | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% |
| CZK/EUR | 24.3 | 24.4 | 24.3 |